365 Days of Climate Awareness 261 - Colombia and Climate Change

Colombia’s climate is classified as “megadiverse”, ranging from tropical mangroves to glaciers, and including desert and grassy plains. The pattern seen elsewhere around the world holds in Colombia as well: while warming occurs, if unevenly, everywhere, dry areas are likely to become drier, and wet areas wetter. Droughts and floods already cause large amounts of economic damage, including an estimated $6B in the coffee industry alone in 2010-11. 

Köppen-Geiger climate zones 1980 - 2016

Predicted Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 2071 - 2100

The western portions of Colombia–the Pacific coast and western slopes of the Andes–are expected to become significantly wetter, though in the same manner as elsewhere around the world, more erratically, with more catastrophic flooding and droughts. Meanwhile the eastern and northern parts of the country, largely in the mountains’ rain shadow, are expected to lose a significant amount of rainfall. Beyond the simple climatology, increased moisture is likely to induce the spread of malarial insects, increasing the threat of infections throughout Colombia’s most populous regions.

Average annual temperature, Colombia, 1901 - 2020.

Annual CO2 Emissions, Colombia, 1921 - 2021.

Another pattern which has emerged here, and is likely to continue, is that the minimum temperatures rise more than the maximum: that is to say, nights are becoming warmer more quickly than the days. This in itself does not seem like a catastrophe but every change, however subtle, has its cascading effects in the ecosystems, especially in a country as extraordinarily biodiverse as Colombia. Small initial causes can have large later effects.

Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Colombia, 1921 - 2021. Note that Colombia's century-long total (3B T) is less than the US' output for 2021 alone (5B T).

Per capita CO2 Emissions, Colombia, 1921 - 2021.

The physical risk of destabilized slopes in the increasingly rainy regions is a genuine threat, as is the decreasing viability of many towns and settlements in the eastern plains. The agriculture of the east is likely to suffer as the climate warms and the region desiccates.

Tomorrow: introduction to Central America.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 260 - Introduction to Colombia

Colombia is a country which sits on two continents–its mainland in South America, and several islands included in North America. Known colloquially as “the land that God kissed”, it is a tropical, extremely biodiverse nation covering 1,141,748 sq km/440,831 sq mi and having 50 million people. It has been inhabited since at least 12,000 BCE, though the Spanish arrived to colonize in 1499. Natives achieved their independence from Spain in 1819, and the modern-day Republic of Colombia was declared in 1866.

Physical map.

The single largest reason for governmental and economic instability in Colombia is the drug trade, specifically coca farming and production of cocaine, in both of which Colombia leads the world. Local and regional cartels have had tremendous power throughout the country for decades now, with horrific stories of coercion and abuse in pursuing their profits. Colombia was one of the United States’ principal targets in its highly militarized “War on Drugs”, a series of campaigns which began in 1971, and has extended well into the 2000s. It has helped keep Colombia’s government unstable and completely failed to stem the drug trade into the United States and elsewhere, to say nothing of the terrible social effects of it greatly increasing incarceration rates for US citizens, especially for blacks.

Natural geographic regions.

Colombia includes islands in both the Atlantic (western Caribbean) and Pacific Oceans, and is divided into six geographic regions: Insular, Caribbean, Pacific, Andes, Orinoco and Amazon (named after the two major rivers in the region, the Orinoco which flows through Venezuela, and the Amazon through Brazil). The islands are tropical in climate and share close cultural ties wo
Colombia. The Caribbean region is forested, crossed by many rivers, and very humid. The Pacific region is similar, but being near the Andes is rich in precious metals and is home to a thriving mining industry. 

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980 - 2016.

The Andes region is climatically diverse, being warm at lower elevations but increasing cold with altitude, and highly populated. The Orinoco (Llanos Orientales) region are high plains, more temperate than the lower forested region farther east, with rich farmland, and sparsely populated. The Orinoco, the Amazon  and the Andes regions are where most of the coca is grown. The Amazon region likewise includes higher-altitude plains descending down to the Amazon River basin to the southeast.

Colombia was historically agrarian, but along with much of the rest of the world industrialized quickly in the 20th century. By 2000 only 15.8% of Colombians were involved in agriculture, which accounted for 6.6% of GDP. Industry (largely mining) represented just over 33% of GDP, and services slightly less than 60%. Colombia’s economy has grown rapidly in recent decades.

Bogotá.

Tomorrow: Colombia and climate change.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 259 - Bolivia and Climate Change

Bolivia is one of the poorest nations in Central and South America. One clear display of this is the extremely low carbon emissions for the country, topping out at just over 1,800 kg/2 T per person in 2018-9. Bolivia’s cumulative carbon emissions are estimated at just over 454 billion kg/500 million tons, which is less than one-tenth the US’ annual emissions (4.5 T kg/5 billion tons). Bolivia’s relative poverty in a modernizing world has contributed to its ongoing political instability, and also makes it a prime example of the injustice of climate change, affecting poorer, smaller nations with disproportionate severity.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980 - 2016

Predicted Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 2071 - 2100

Bolivia’s lowest elevation is roughly 122 m/400 ft above sea level, in the Amazon basin in the country’s northeast quarter. Sea level rise is not a concern. However, glacier loss–Bolivia has most of the world’s tropical glaciers–and the resulting reduction in water access is. Cities at elevation, like El Alto and La Paz, are at real risk of severe water shortage in years to come when the depleting glaciers have melted. It is estimated that 40% Bolivia’s glaciers have melted in the past four decades, and they are expected to be largely gone by 2080.

Annual CO2 emissions, Bolivia, 1928 - 2021.

Cumulative CO2 emissions, Bolivia, 1928 - 2021.

And as seen elsewhere in the tropical zones, including much of Africa, while overall precipitation in the Amazon is expected to increase–absent active deforestation–models predict this rainfall will be increasingly erratic and dangerous, coming in smaller, more intense bursts, with likelier intervening droughts which could contribute to forest fires. While Bolivia has not cleared rainforest as rapidly as Brazil has (4300 km2/1660 mi2 in 2020 in Bolivia, vs 32,000 km2/12,350 mi2 in Brazil), it continues to convert rainforest to farmland while actively moving citizens from the Altiplano down to the lower elevations to take up farming.

Per capita CO2 emissions, Bolivia, 1928 - 2021.

Disappearance of the Chacaltaya Glacier.

Tomorrow: introduction to Colombia.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 258 - Introduction to Bolivia

Bolivia, along with Paraguay, is one of two landlocked countries in South America. It sits between Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile and Peru, and while only 42 km/ 25.2 mi from the Pacific Ocean at its closest point, this is across the Andes Mountains, as strong a natural barrier as anywhere on earth, physically as well as climatically. Bolivia covers 1,098,581 km2/424,164 mi2 and has approximately 11 million people, featuring groups of indigenous, European, Asian and African descent–a highly mixed population. Its capital is the city of Sucre.

Political map of South America.

Physical map of Bolivia.

Bolivia, named for Venezuelan freedom fighter Simón Bolivar, has been inhabited for more than 6,000 years. By 1500 BCE the Aymara had established a capital at Tiwanaku, which between 600-800 CE had anywhere from 15,000 to 30,000 residents. Around 950 CE a severe, extended drought brought the Aymara society to its knees, to be replaced in the late 1400’s by the invading Incas, who dominated the region all the way to the Amazon basin. In 1524 the Spanish began their invasion of Inca territory, and the conquest was complete by 1533. Bolivia, known as Charcas in the Spanish Empire, was a major source of silver. 

It remained under Spanish control until the 1800’s, when a series of rebellions not only in Bolivia but elsewhere in South America disrupted Spanish control and set many of the local populations against each other. Independence fighters in Bolivia fought several wars not only against the Spanish but against local powers in Peru, Chile and elsewhere, losing quite a bit of territory, especially throughout the 20th century This most especially included a 400 km/250 mile stretch of Pacific coast taken by Chile. Bolivia’s governance has been quite turbulent, and included a US-backed military junta formed in the 60’s. In 1993 Bolivia returned to democracy, if at times highly unstable.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980 - 2016.

Sucre, capital city.

Bolivia is in the central region of South America, between 57°26'–69°38'W and 9°38'–22°53'S, making it entirely tropical, though its western Andean elevations include cold regions quite different from the Amazon basin rainforest in the northeast. The mountainous region, 28% of the country’s territory,  is composed of two chains, the Cordillera Occidental and the Cordillera Central, between which is the Altiplano and the salt flats which are a commercially important source of lithium. South America’s largest lake, Titicaca, is in the Cordillera Central. East of the mountains is the Sub-Andean region, 13% of the country’s territory, a temperate zone featuring a large amount of agriculture. The remaining 59% to the east and north is the tropical, forested Llanos region.

The Altiplano.

Tomorrow: Bolivia and climate change.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 257 - South America and ENSO

South America and Australia receive the most direct effects of the El Niňo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, but especially South America, all of which is affected, including economically. The harder question to answer–there is no strong consensus right now–is what relationship climate change has with alternations between El Niňo and La Niňa.

El Niňo (left) vs La Niňa (right)

El Niňo leads to warmer, moister air crossing the Pacific from the west, especially since the easterly trade winds don’t hold them back, leading to greater precipitation in Ecuador, Peru,  Chile and Argentina: rain at lower elevations, snow at the higher. Meanwhile, Central America and the Amazon basin are comparatively dry and at greater risk of forest fires. The converse is true in La Niňa years: the west coast is dry and the northeastern region tends to be wetter than average. Peru and Chile have thriving ski tourist industries, so El Niňo years are welcome to that segment of the economy. 

El Niňo and La Niňa

These are in addition to the well-known effect on Colombia's, Ecuador’s, Peru’s and Chile’s fisheries: warm, nutrient-low El Niňo water from the western Pacific depresses coastal fish populations and ruins the catch, while cold La Niňa water upwelled from below leads to fish population booms. The ENSO cycle can be found in climate proxy records for the past several thousand years, so it has been a known, if not understood, feature of life for South American inhabitants virtually since their arrival.

Effects of ENSO on weather, plus the Southern Oscillation Index.

Looking for connections between ENSO and global warming has received significant attention from climate scientists in recent years. There is no clear and obvious pattern, either in frequency or duration of either mode. However, there does seem to be a clear pattern of increasing severity of positive Southern Oscillation cycles–the El Niňo portion–over the past century. Less obviously is a small increase in the overall length of time in recent decades spent in the negative, La Niňa mode. Overall sea surface and subsurface temperatures in the west Pacific have been rising in recent decades, which might be an important factor in the growing strength of El Niňo episodes. 

Global Ocean Heat Content, 1960 - 2018.

An explanation for the less obvious La Niňa phenomenon is much harder to be sure of. It’s estimated that the increased wind circulation drives 30% more heat into intermediate and lower depths in the Pacific during La Niňa years. Deeper, cooler water upwelled in the east must be replaced by warmer water downwelling in the west. An increasingly warm atmosphere, with increased dynamic energy of its own, might well lead to increased vertical circulation and deeper storage of warm water in the Pacific. Global oceanic heat content has risen dramatically in recent decades. 90% of excess heat due to global warming is thought to be stored in the ocean, and La Niňa phases of ENSO might be a large component of that.

Tomorrow: introduction to Bolivia.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 256 - Chile and Climate Change

Chile’s climate is extremely diverse, from hot and arid in the tropical north to glaciers and alpine tundra in the south. Being a narrow strip of land between mountains and sea makes for small microclimatic zones and dynamic conditions. It also makes the country more susceptible to the planet’s heat rise, with different climatic zones in close proximity.

Average annual temperatures

Chile average temperatures, 1901 - 2020.

Chile takes global warming seriously, and was one of the few countries to lower its greenhouse gas emissions targets (NDC, or Nationally Determined Contribution) during the COVID-19 pandemic. As stated by Chile’s own environmental minister, their government included social justice issues, such as access to water and other necessities of life, into forming its climate plans. This current plan calls for Chile’s national emissions to peak in 2025 and decline to 95 mT CO2e (megatons of CO2 equivalent) by 2030, on the way to carbon neutrality by 2050. 

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016

Predicted Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 2071-2100

It is predicted that Chile’s average temperature will increase by 3-3.5°C/5.4-6.3°F. Most of this is expected to be felt in the north, where the arid zone will increasingly desertify. This is one of the areas on earth which is expected to become wetter, with annual increases of 0.5 cm by 2050 and more than 1 cm before 2100. What this means for the ecosystems isn’t easy to predict but if it proves to be the case, mudslides and slope failures are sure to become more common, especially with the region’s seismic activity.

Annual CO2 emissions, Chile.

Cumulative CO2 emissions, Chile.

Per capita CO2 emissions, Chile.

Tomorrow: Chile and ENSO.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 255 - Introduction to Chile

The country of Chile occupies the southwest portion of South America, in a narrow strip between the Andes and the Pacific Ocean. It is 4,270 km/2,653 mi long, 356 km/221 mi wide at its widest point, 64 km/40 mi) at its narrowest, and averaging 175 km/109 mi. It occupies 756,096 km2/291,930 mi2, and in 2017 had a population of 17.5 million. Its capital is Santiago, and its economy is perhaps the most liberal and open in South America. Chile was the first South American nation to join the OECD (2010).

Map of Chile

There is evidence of human inhabitation as early as 18,500 years BP, with further influxes from elsewhere in the continent around 10,000 years BP. The native Mapuche people repulsed several attempts by the Incas to conquer their coastline, but the Spanish conquistadores starting in 1540 began to subjugate the area, in search of precious metals. They retained control until 1808, when Napoleon installed his brother Joseph as King of Spain. The colony of Chile began agitating for independence, and formed its own government in the name of the heir of Spain’s deposed king, Ferdinand.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones 1980-2016.

In 1818 Chile formally declared its independence as a republic. The fortunes of this republic varied throughout the 20th century, but with a timely shove by Richard Nixon’s covert policies, it collapsed into the Pinochet dictatorship which lasted from 1973 to 1990. Since then a republican form of government has been restored which lasts to this day.

Gran Torre, Santiago.

Mining is hugely important to its economy: nearly 45% of Chile’s exports are copper and copper ore. Chile also has the world’s seventh most productive commercial fishery, which accounts for close to 9% of its exports. Fruits, nuts and wine account for close to another 15%, though Chile’s agricultural potential is severely hampered by the proximity of the steep Andes.

The Andes Mountains.

Chile extends from 17°S to 56°S at the Tierra Del Fuego. Its climate varies hugely, from the extremely dry Atacama Desert in the north to the subtropical Easter Island, a Mediterranean climate in the central region, to oceanic further south and tundra in the high mountains. Biologically Chile is somewhat isolated from its surroundings by the Andes, resulting in a high proportion of endemic species not found elsewhere.

The Atacama, driest desert on earth.

Tomorrow: Chile and climate change.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 254 - The Cattle Industry and Climate Change

According to one estimate, methane (CH4, the primary component of natural gas) accounts for roughly 11% of the world’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. Over a 100-year period, methane is estimated to be 28-34 times as potent a greenhouse insulator as carbon dioxide; over a shorter time span of 20 years, that multiplier is 65. Breakdowns by sector vary, and this is where the details can become tricky, like for life cycle assessments of the greenhouse gas values of electric cars. To borrow an engineering term: how big a box to draw? That is, where to assign the system limits for which you must account?

Global greenhouse gas emissions by gas, 2018

Though annual global beef production, by tonnage, is roughly half that of pig meat and poultry, it dominates other livestock types in greenhouse gas emissions. This accounting involves elements such as the CO2 produced in manufacturing nitrate fertilizers for cattle feed, as well as direct production of methane by fermentation of manure and digestively by the cattle themselves. Unsurprisingly, wealthier countries–the United States, Europe, and other OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) nations, plus Brazil and a few others–consume the most beef. Those nations’ diets therefore have much higher carbon footprints than others’ around the world.

Global methane emissions by source, 2018

Roughly 35% of overall greenhouse gas emissions are thought to result from global food production–all food sources, not simply beef. About 5000 km2/1930 mi2 of forests are lost per year (net–deforestation minus reforestation). Most of this is occurring in Brazil but it is a global issue. Land-use change–conversion from forest to pasture–is also a major source of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions.

Carbon footprint by food source

Global meat production by type

Within the slightly more than one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions which agriculture accounts for, in 2010 beef production was responsible for about 26.1% of the total, and cattle ranching for dairy was responsible for another 8.8%. Combined, nearly 35% of food-related greenhouse emissions results from cattle ranching. That is to say, 9% of global greenhouse emissions result from beef production, and 12% from beef plus dairy. Cattle ranching is easily the highest climate-impact global food source.

Per capita meat supply, 2017

Tomorrow: introduction to Chile.

Be brave, and be well.