365 Days of Climate Awareness 261 - Colombia and Climate Change

Colombia’s climate is classified as “megadiverse”, ranging from tropical mangroves to glaciers, and including desert and grassy plains. The pattern seen elsewhere around the world holds in Colombia as well: while warming occurs, if unevenly, everywhere, dry areas are likely to become drier, and wet areas wetter. Droughts and floods already cause large amounts of economic damage, including an estimated $6B in the coffee industry alone in 2010-11. 

Köppen-Geiger climate zones 1980 - 2016

Predicted Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 2071 - 2100

The western portions of Colombia–the Pacific coast and western slopes of the Andes–are expected to become significantly wetter, though in the same manner as elsewhere around the world, more erratically, with more catastrophic flooding and droughts. Meanwhile the eastern and northern parts of the country, largely in the mountains’ rain shadow, are expected to lose a significant amount of rainfall. Beyond the simple climatology, increased moisture is likely to induce the spread of malarial insects, increasing the threat of infections throughout Colombia’s most populous regions.

Average annual temperature, Colombia, 1901 - 2020.

Annual CO2 Emissions, Colombia, 1921 - 2021.

Another pattern which has emerged here, and is likely to continue, is that the minimum temperatures rise more than the maximum: that is to say, nights are becoming warmer more quickly than the days. This in itself does not seem like a catastrophe but every change, however subtle, has its cascading effects in the ecosystems, especially in a country as extraordinarily biodiverse as Colombia. Small initial causes can have large later effects.

Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Colombia, 1921 - 2021. Note that Colombia's century-long total (3B T) is less than the US' output for 2021 alone (5B T).

Per capita CO2 Emissions, Colombia, 1921 - 2021.

The physical risk of destabilized slopes in the increasingly rainy regions is a genuine threat, as is the decreasing viability of many towns and settlements in the eastern plains. The agriculture of the east is likely to suffer as the climate warms and the region desiccates.

Tomorrow: introduction to Central America.

Be brave, and be well.