365 Days of Climate Awareness 233 – South Africa and Climate Change

South Africa’s climate is subtropical, and ranges from arid in the northwest to rainy in the southeast. Temperature records from the past 50 years show roughly one degree of warming, approximately in keeping with the world average.  The southern hemisphere in general has shown a slower tendency to warm than the northern, likely due to the greater percentage area of open water and the presence of a frozen continent at the south pole, which is more consistently cold than circulating water would be, and acts as a cooling influence in general. South Africa, being largely surrounded by ocean water, has warmed but not exceedingly.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016

Köppen-Geiger climate zone prediction, 2071-2100

Models show further temperature rise but, more importantly, changing precipitation zones throughout the country, as the arid region to the northwest is likely to expand, while the rainier southeast shrinks but becomes more intensely wet. This prediction is consistent with global observations of the past several decades showing an intensified water cycle, where arid regions become drier, and rainy regions wetter.

Air temperature anomalies averaged across 20 stations in South Africa, 1961-2014.

Annual CO₂ emissions, 1884-2021.

South Africa’s carbon emissions largely reflect its economic growth. Following the racial integration of the 1990’s, the South African government adjusted its policies to encourage foreign investment which helped result in rapid economic expansion in the early 2000’s, to where South Africa now has Africa’s second-largest economy behind Nigeria. However, the country’s economic performance has remained erratic, a reality reflected in the jagged carbon emissions curve from the mid-90’s on. To the many other factors influencing economic performance is the concern with CO₂ emissions, a problem for this coal-reliant (88% of its electricity) country. Aggressive emissions targets cannot fail to negatively impact the lives of South Africans.

Cumulative CO₂ emissions, 1884-2021.

Per capita CO₂ emissions, 1884-2021.

Tomorrow: introduction to Nigeria.

Be brave, and be well.