365 Days of Climate Awareness 282 – Croatia, the Balkans and Climate Change

Croatia, like the western Balkans in general, has paid little attention to the global warming crisis, increasing its collective production and use of lignite, the cheapest, dirtiest, and least efficient form of coal. Political, economic and social instability never fail to push environmental issues aside, and the western Balkan states are an unfortunate case in point. The western Balkans are not yet members of the European Union, so they are not yet bound by EU environmental standards.3.1

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016.

Predicted Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 2071-2100.

Since the late 60’s, the average temperature of this region has increased by 1.2°C/2.2°F, and it is predicted to increase by as much as 4.0°C/7.2°F by 2100. Historically, and in models for the future, Croatia and the region to the south are far exceeding global warming rates. And in the pattern which is by now familiar, summer months have become drier, and will become drier still; winter months will become wetter, but with fewer, more extreme events. The sub-tropical climate will push north, altering ecosystems and species survivability.

Annual CO₂ emissions, Croatia.

Cumulative CO₂ emissions, Croatia.

Per capita CO₂ emissions, Croatia.

The summer heat has brought more and increasingly severe heat waves, and these will increase. Among other effects on biodiversity, the forests are likely to lose trees and the risk of fire will increase. As has been seen in other industrialized, warming parts of the world, energy use during the hot months has increased and will continue to, as people turn to air conditioning. Neither Croatia nor the other Balkan states have coal phase-out plans, as prescribed in the Paris Agreement. Though its CO₂ emissions dropped in 2020, largely due the COVID-19 pandemic, the country and the region continue to perform poorly with regard to decarbonizing.

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West Balkan coal (lignite) production, 1990-2019.

Tomorrow: introduction to Poland.

Be brave, and be well.