365 Days of Climate Awareness 311 – China and Coal

Coal is still China’s chief energy source, though the percentage is falling, now at roughly 56%. But China’s raw consumption of coal rose very steeply through the early 2000’s, the curve flattening only during the mid-to-late teens. As of 2020 China’s coal consumption was 54% of the world total (22.8/46.0 TWh [Terawatt-hours]). China currently produces 51% (22.4/44.3 TWh) of the world’s coal. Global production and consumption of coal have declined slightly since 2013, but only slightly relative to the rapid increase of the preceding 15 years. China was the main cause for that surge. Coal has powered its economic rise, and continues to now.

Coal production of China and other world leading nations.

Coal consumption of China and other world leading nations.

Though China’s production and consumption of coal are roughly equivalent in overall energy units, a large portion of consumption is for industrial processes like coking and smelting steel. Coal is also used as a primary fuel in homes all across the country. So China, in addition to its huge domestic production, is also the world’s leading coal importer, buying mainly from Australia, Mongolia, Indonesia and Russia. (It would take some serious work to reconcile the different reports of consumption, production, import and export given the variety of units used: energy (TWh), thermal (BTU), tonnage, and dollar value.)

Share of energy consumption by source.

China import vs export of coal, 1997-2020.

The number of coal plants—its “fleet”—has increased over the past two decades to nearly 1100, totaling nearly 1.1 TW (about 1 GW per plant). The fleet grew rapidly in the early 2000’s and again between 2014-2018, during the global oil downturn. Concerning the oil downturn, it is very difficult to know, because China’s economic statistics are famously opaque and sometimes hard to believe—with Jack-Welch-at-GE levels of reported growth—but various indicators hint at a major economic recession in China beginning in which softened global demand for oil and led to the collapse in oil prices. Some supporting evidence comes by way of the vastly increased stimulus spending throughout the country beginning at that time. Regional governments tried to spur employment through major infrastructure projects, like the building of coal plants. And there was a dramatic spike in coal-fired generating capacity.

2019 world leaders in coal imports.

Chinese coal-fired capacity (plant) additions vs. utilization, 2007-2019.

There is another edge to this massive sword, however: China’s plants are more modern and far more efficient than their counterparts around the world, including the United States. Coal plants do not remove CO₂ from the atmosphere, however, so greater efficiency combined with greater capacity has still led to upwardly trending carbon emissions.

Coal-fired power plant additions by efficiency type (note the high number of least efficient (subcritical) plants in the early 2000's.

Tomorrow: China and oil.

Be brave, and be well.