365 Days of Climate Awareness 318 – Global Overview of Emissions and Warming

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Emissions of carbon dioxide and carbon dioxide equivalent continue to rise globally. Carbon dioxide equivalent is the modeled sum of CO₂ and non-CO₂ greenhouse gases including methane, sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆)  and others. It is a more complicated concept since the gases do not have equivalent behaviors or residence times in the atmosphere. Direct measurements of the gases in question are translated into warming potentials and so folded into modeling calculations.

Global CO₂ concentration vs temperature rise.

Actual and projected emissions vs temperature rise relative to 1.5-degree increase goal.

The measurements show that declining absolute and per-capita emissions from the richer countries on earth show declining emissions in recent years which is overwhelmed by the developing world. Even as improvements in efficiency and renewable capacity provide some hope in the climate situation, the planet’s economic momentum tells the opposite story. Poor and developing countries point out rightly that they especially, in geographically disadvantaged positions, are paying the highest environmental and social tolls for the problem which the industrialized world created.

Annual CO₂  emissions by economic stratum.

Cumulative CO₂  emissions by economic stratum.

But it’s more than a problem of justice. It’s also an issue of human nature itself, of individuals’ and groups’ collective desires to improve their circumstances, in this case with economic tools of proven destructiveness. Albert Einstein’s famous quote can be applied perfectly here: “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” The delusion that the planet can continue growing economically and commit itself to always-greater material prosperity is one of the greatest hurdles we face.

Per capita CO₂  emissions by economic stratum.

Tomorrow: global warming potentials.

Be brave, be steadfast, and be well.