365 Days of Climate Awareness 343: AR6 Vol 2 Chap 16, Key Risks across Sectors and Regions

While climate –specific data, such as the coastal impacts of sea level rise and the increased intensity of tropical cyclones, are straightforward to track, more complex societal effects are much more difficult. It is difficult or impossible, due to lack of data and the complexity of the issues, to draw confident conclusions about global warming’s effect on aspects of society like food prices and malnutrition. Models can make such predictions for the future but the danger of conflating cause with correlation is very high when data is sparse for large regions of the world.

All illustrations from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, Vol. 2, Chap. 16. Climate change risks to regions around the globe.

Interrelations of climate change risks.

Global warming can be linked with much higher confidence not only to economic impacts such as damage and lost productivity due to extreme events, but also to impaired economic growth afterward. Resources are devoted to repair and recovery. Lost productivity over stretches of time is replaced only slowly or, in some cases, not at all, and economic activity shifts elsewhere.

Risk by sector.

Specific risks at select locations.

Migrations such as from southern (Bangladesh), central (Pakistan) and eastern (China) Asian flooding have increased in recent years. Conflict due in part to climatic effects has also increased, with the Arab Spring of 2011 and the Syrian civil war both caused in part (though certainly not wholly) by drought. The drought and resulting food shortages led to serious social unrest. But while the pace of changes in the natural system is accelerating, humanity’s response is not keeping up.

Risk severity by 2100.

Types and scale of climate change adaptation around the world.

Political and social will for change varies widely around the globe. The smaller nations most at risk—low-lying countries and small islands especially—favor urgent climate action, but lack global influence and the budget for their own mitigation measures. Some more industrialized countries have moved strongly toward decarbonizing their economies. Some, like India and China, while still consuming huge amounts of fossil fuels, are also making genuine strides in renewables. Some countries, like in central Asia, ignore the issue completely. And the United States, the second-largest (behind China) current greenhouse gas emitter, but far the largest historical emitter, remains stymied by internal division.

Tomorrow: introduction to mitigation.

Be brave, be steadfast, and be well.

IPCC 6th Assessment Report, Vol. 2 Chap. 16