365 Days of Climate Awareness 314 - The Three Gorges Dam

China’s Three Gorges Dam is the world’s largest, in the size of the dam and reservoir, and in generation capacity. It measures 2,335 m/7,661 ft/1.45 mi long, 181 m/594 ft tall, and required 27.2 million cu m/35.6 million cu yd of concrete. The dam traps a reservoir of 39 cu km/9.4 cu mi volume and 1,084 sq km/419 sq mi, about 2/3 the size of Rhode Island. Its generation capacity is 22.5 GW, and increased China’s hydroelectric capacity by nearly 20% when it came on line.

Location of the dam within all of China.

Closer view of the Yangtze river, central China.

The original concept, to build a 30 million horsepower dam east of the Three Gorges stretch of the Yangtze River, was expressed by the statesman Sun Yat-sen in 1919. The project was alternately pursued and shelved until 1944, when a team of Americans surveyed the region and drew up plans. A team of 54 Chinese engineers went to the US for training and began work, but it was interrupted by the Chinese Revolution. Though Mao Zedong approved of the concept he favored other dams over the Yangtze, and only in the 1980’s did debate on it resume. In 1992 the project  was approved and in December 1994 work began. Construction was complete in December 2007 and the station was fully on line by May 2012.

2008 month-by-month power output of the Three Gorges Dam.

China's electricity production by source through the years.

Central China has a monsoonal climate, so the Yangtze’s flow is extremely seasonal, as is the dam’s electricity output, peaking from June to October. The plant consists of 32 700-MW generators which distribute power to nine provinces and two cities, including Shanghai. It began delivering power in 2003, with only three installed generator units, and the total increased until 2012 when, with all 32 running, the dam delivered 98 TWh of power. Since then it has averaged more than 97 TWh per year, nearly 40% of all US hydropower (260 TWh) combined and about 7.5% of China’s annual total of 1,302 TWh.

Side-on view of the dam.

Aerial photo showing the dam and part of the reservoir.

The dam has slowed the river’s upstream flow, leading to increased sedimentation throughout its middle and upper reaches, though there is not consensus on the precise effects. It has led to increased landslides upstream as the dammed water raises the water table, and also serves to control flooding in the river’s lower reaches. Water level in the gorges rose more than 91 m/300 ft, submerging an estimated 1,300 archeological sites, 13 cities and 140 towns and displacing 1.4 million people.

The Yangtze, before and after the dam (reservoir not yet full).

The Qutang Gorge.

The Three Gorges.

Tomorrow: China and rare earths.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 313 China and Renewable energy

China is the undisputed world leader in renewable power generation. In 2021 China had more than 1 TW (Terawatt = 10¹² W = 1 million megawatts) of renewable generation, 43% of the country’s total capacity (generating potential, not the same as actual power generated). China’s renewable mix involves solar, hydro and wind power. As in the United States, renewable electricity generation is viewed as a triple benefit: (1) lowered carbon emissions and pollution of the environment (like Beijing’s infamous brown fogs); (2) reduced spending on fuel, easing the national budget; and (3) energy independence, to reduce and ultimately eliminate the need for foreign sources of energy.

Beijing's brown fog.

China's electricity generation mix through the years.

The largest component of China’s renewable electricity mix is hydropower, having produced 1,340 TWh (Terawatt-hours), with wind power second at 655 TWh, and solar at 327 TWh. There are more than 46,000 hydroelectric dams in the country, ranging from small units providing local power to the giant Three Gorges Dam with 22.5 GW of capacity. Though China’s installed capacity leads the world, the efficiency of the stations is rated at only 31%, a reflection on the age of many of the installations (pre-1970’s), and their potential to be updated and greatly increase the country’s renewable power generation (efficiency of 90% is common today).

Electricity generated by wind in China, 2005-2021.

Installed wind generation capacity in China, 2005-2021.

China has the world’s largest wind resources, most of which is offshore. The Chinese have increased their wind generation capacity in almost linear fashion over the past decade-plus, vaulting from fourth to first globally in that measure between 2009 and 2021. In 2021 the Chinese installed nearly 17 GW of offshore wind capacity, bringing their total to 26 GW, almost half of the global total of 54 GW.

Average wind speeds in China.

A similar story can be told for solar capacity, particularly photovoltaic (PV) as opposed to steam generation. Photovoltaic power is based a chemical process in which light impacting the chemicals of a solar panel directly causes an electrical current. By the end of 2020, China had 253 MW of installed PV capacity, about a third of the world’s total. This represents a small share of China’s overall energy mix—only 3.5% of installed capacity, and does not include some of the concentrated solar power (CSP) plants farther south, where solar energy is collected by mirrors and focused on a central point, usually to heat water into steam for power generation.

Installed photovoltaic (PV) generation capacity.

In addition to a serious national commitment to increasing renewable power generation, China is a world leader in parts manufacture for renewables, especially wind turbine blades and PV cells. The Chinese PV industry has come under particular criticism because of its industrial waste and China’s reported use of forced labor, but it has come to dominate the global market: as of 2019, 79% of PV cells originated in China. China does not dominate the world market for wind turbine blades, however, sharing about 45% of the global market with the US.

Tomorrow: the Three Gorges dam.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 312 – China and Oil

As China’s economy and middle class—now the largest on earth, at nearly 350 million, 25% of their population—have grown, so has its thirst for oil, which is used predominantly for transportation. According to 2016 data, China is now the second leading national oil consumer, at 12.8 mmbd (million barrels per day--behind the US at 19.5 mmbd), the fourth-leading oil producer (4.9 mmbd, behind the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia), and imports 7.6 mmbd, about 60% of its consumption. Meanwhile, China’s oil reserves are not extensive, amounting to 25 billion barrels, equivalent to 1.5% of the world’s total reserves, and enough to last for five years at current consumption levels (assuming 100% recovery, but 50% is typical).

China oil consumption and production, 1980-2017.

Registered vehicles in China, 2010-2021.

With the rapid growth of business and the middle class has come increasing demand for travel, for both commerce and convenience. Two good indicators of that are the steadily growing number of registered vehicles—310 million as of 2019—and the even-more-rapidly growing (until COVID) number of air passengers in the country. However, China’s growing need for oil, in pursuit of a perpetually expanding economy, has contributed to a number of global initiatives.

Air passenger count in China, 1975-2020.

Economically and to a lesser extent militarily, China has increasingly asserted its interests in recent years. It has pursued global markets for valuable minerals including oil, securing long-term contracts with Nigeria, Venezuela and other countries throughout Africa and Central and South America. China’s primary oil producer, the China National Petroleum Corporation, is active both on- and offshore, and is central to the country’s claims of the South China Sea as a matter of trade and energy security.

South China Sea and disputing maritime claims

This security is twofold: to gain access to the oil deposits beneath the floor of the South China Sea (estimated 11 billion barrels—more than 75% of China’s current reserves--plus huge gas deposits, which the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia also claim); and to better guard the Strait of Malacca, which links the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean. Malacca is the world’s most important maritime chokepoint, and it is the passage through which most of China’s imported oil—roughly 50% of the country’s total consumption—passes. China is rapidly militarizing the islands of the South China Sea and this promises to be a major international point of friction in years to come.

The Strait of Malacca.

Corollary to this global, massive push for access to resources and geopolitical security is China’s long-term development strategy of the Belt and Road. It draws its inspiration from the ancient Silk Road connecting China and Europe via central Asia, but modernized to include less-expensive maritime travel. China’s purpose is to secure land routes to Europe as a developing market for its products, as well as to further secure access to the mineral (including oil and gas) wealth of central Asia and Siberia. With the current war in Ukraine, however, progress on the Belt and Road initiative has stalled.

The modern Belt and Road concept.

The ancient Silk Road.

Tomorrow: China and renewable energy.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 311 – China and Coal

Coal is still China’s chief energy source, though the percentage is falling, now at roughly 56%. But China’s raw consumption of coal rose very steeply through the early 2000’s, the curve flattening only during the mid-to-late teens. As of 2020 China’s coal consumption was 54% of the world total (22.8/46.0 TWh [Terawatt-hours]). China currently produces 51% (22.4/44.3 TWh) of the world’s coal. Global production and consumption of coal have declined slightly since 2013, but only slightly relative to the rapid increase of the preceding 15 years. China was the main cause for that surge. Coal has powered its economic rise, and continues to now.

Coal production of China and other world leading nations.

Coal consumption of China and other world leading nations.

Though China’s production and consumption of coal are roughly equivalent in overall energy units, a large portion of consumption is for industrial processes like coking and smelting steel. Coal is also used as a primary fuel in homes all across the country. So China, in addition to its huge domestic production, is also the world’s leading coal importer, buying mainly from Australia, Mongolia, Indonesia and Russia. (It would take some serious work to reconcile the different reports of consumption, production, import and export given the variety of units used: energy (TWh), thermal (BTU), tonnage, and dollar value.)

Share of energy consumption by source.

China import vs export of coal, 1997-2020.

The number of coal plants—its “fleet”—has increased over the past two decades to nearly 1100, totaling nearly 1.1 TW (about 1 GW per plant). The fleet grew rapidly in the early 2000’s and again between 2014-2018, during the global oil downturn. Concerning the oil downturn, it is very difficult to know, because China’s economic statistics are famously opaque and sometimes hard to believe—with Jack-Welch-at-GE levels of reported growth—but various indicators hint at a major economic recession in China beginning in which softened global demand for oil and led to the collapse in oil prices. Some supporting evidence comes by way of the vastly increased stimulus spending throughout the country beginning at that time. Regional governments tried to spur employment through major infrastructure projects, like the building of coal plants. And there was a dramatic spike in coal-fired generating capacity.

2019 world leaders in coal imports.

Chinese coal-fired capacity (plant) additions vs. utilization, 2007-2019.

There is another edge to this massive sword, however: China’s plants are more modern and far more efficient than their counterparts around the world, including the United States. Coal plants do not remove CO₂ from the atmosphere, however, so greater efficiency combined with greater capacity has still led to upwardly trending carbon emissions.

Coal-fired power plant additions by efficiency type (note the high number of least efficient (subcritical) plants in the early 2000's.

Tomorrow: China and oil.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 310 – Economic Rise of China

China’s economy is currently the second-largest in the world, having risen from comparative obscurity in 1979 with a series of free-market reforms. Before then China had a command economy with government-set production goals, price controls and resource allocations. The reforms of 1979 relaxed pricing and ownership rules, established coastal trade zones to attract foreign investment, decentralized governmental economic authority and lowered protective trade barriers. Those reforms had their intended effect.

China's and other major economies' GDP, 1960-2015.

The basic strategy behind promoting maximal economic growth has not changed: to create a stable society for a massive population, which in 1979 numbered 986 million and today 1.413 billion (an increase of more than 40% in less than two generations, despite the One Child Policy). China aggressively pursued an export economy based on manufacturing, focusing first on low-end, inexpensive products.

China per-capita GDP, 1950-2018.

However, due to a number of factors that has changed over the decades. Other nearby countries such as Thailand and Vietnam have also moved into the low-end manufacturing market, providing real competition for labor. Secondly, China has been somewhat the victim of its own success, with domestic economic growth leading to an increase in living standards and necessary increases in pay, so China has steadily priced itself out of its prior labor markets.

Breakdown of Chinese Exports, 2019.

Since 2010 China has been the world’s manufacturing leader, taking over from the United States. Manufacturing comprises 40% of its GDP, and includes mining and processing of iron, steel and aluminum; weapons; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals and fertilizers; food processing, automobiles and consumer goods (including electronics). Services have grown to be an even larger share, however, including telecommunications, transportation and internet-based sales.

China GDP by sector.

The increasing price of labor has not proven any kind of fatal problem, however, as the country has moved into higher-end and heavier manufacturing. And despite is economic rise, China’s per-capita GDP is still 60^th globally, well behind the most industrialized nations. But this has led to a conscious shift in policy from 2015 on in the Chinese government away from an export-dominated economy toward one which more emphasizes domestic consumption.

Chinese GDP change by percentage of previous year, 1980-2021.

Tomorrow: China and coal.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 309 – Introduction to China

China is one of the world’s great ancient civilizations, with some of the earliest proto-human remains, a deep, rich cultural tradition, and growing world power now. Militarily and politically, but especially economically, China’s rise through the late 20^th and early 21^st centuries to a prominent global role has been rapid. China is the most populous nation on earth, with 1.413 billion people, and an area of 9,596,961 sq km/3,705,407 sq mi (not counting the occupied area of Tibet), a little larger than the United States. Its capital is Beijing.

Map of China.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016.

Hominid remains have been found there dating to 2.5 MYA. The Homo erectus fossil Peking Man dates to 680-780 KYA, and several more stone-age fossils have been found. In the third millennium BCE the semi-legendary Xia dynasty appeared, beginning a long run of many successive civilizations and empires. The scope of Chinese history is too deep and broad to attempt any summary in a paragraph. Among its many achievements in arts, literature and science, one of China’s lasting cultural legacies is the meritocratic administrative state, a tradition which many historians have argued prepared it for today’s authoritarian (ostensibly Communist) form of government. The succession of empires came down to the Qing dynasty which fell in 1912 and after a period of instability gave rise to the Republic of China which, through a long and sometimes tortuous existence, has become the world power it is now.

China population, 1890-2029 (projected).

The coastal city of Shanghai.

In the 1970’s, as China’s population was approaching one billion, the government’s fear of not enough resources to support all the people led to the creation of the one-child policy, where most families (generally in urban areas) were restricted to one child. The policy was formally instituted in 1980 and kept in place until 2015, during which time China’s population curve began to flatten. Some statistics show a slight decline in the country’s population between 2021 and 2022, signaling the start of a downward population trend, mirrored in other industrialized nations.

Inner Mongolia.

Yangtze River Three Gorges.

China stretches from roughly 18º to 54º N latitude. Its climate ranges from tropical in the southern regions of Hainan and Guandong, to cold and arid in the northern Gobi and Taklamakan deserts. The bulk of middle China, in the eastern and central regions, is temperate, with the major Yellow and Yangtze rivers flowing eastward from Tibet. Its coasts border the East and South China Seas, both (and especially the South) potential repositories of significant oil and gas deposits, and both areas of significant geopolitical concern in the ongoing competition between China and the United States and its allies. Much of China’s climate is monsoonal, with a dry winter and a wet summer season. China is classified as a “megadiverse country”, meaning it harbors a large number of the planet’s existing plant and animal species.

Zhangjiajie National Park.

Tomorrow: 20^th and 21^st century economic development of China.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 308 – Bangladesh and Climate Change

“Ground zero for climate change,” as Bangladesh is known, is imminently vulnerable to the rising ocean. 80% of the country is less than 5 m/16 ft above sea level, putting a large amount of it at risk now for catastrophic flooding, but worse, for permanent submergence beneath the risen ocean. Bangladesh might be the world’s clearest case of climate injustice, where one nation is suffering severe effects of the actions of others. As nature knows no borders, this is frequently the case for a number of issues. In the 1980’s, acid rain resulting in large part from American factories emitting sulfur dioxide, SO₂, into the atmosphere devastated Germany’s Black Forest among other things, both natural and manmade.

Progressive flooding scenarios.

Other clear cases include the coral islands of the Pacific like the Maldives and Solomons, combined population 1.1 million, facing extinction from sea level rise. Bangladesh’s population is 163 million, the majority of whom live in the low-lying Ganges delta. Four separate elements are combining there into a probable humanitarian disaster: the rising ocean; increasing river flooding; the low-lying delta region; and a growing, densely clustered population without the economic means to protect themselves. In addition to inundating existing land, a rising ocean will bring saline water farther inland, making much existing farmland useless, even if it isn’t underwater. Under the IPCC’s median (RCP 2.6) model, sea level rise is predicted to increase along the coast of Bangladesh 25 cm/10 in by 2050, and by 50 cm/20 in by 2100.

North Indian Ocean sea level rise, 2004-2014.

Global warming is amplifying the water cycle, increasing evaporation, moisture content of the atmosphere, and precipitation all over the world. Generally this has translated into wet areas becoming wetter, and dry areas drier. The rising temperatures mean that the character of precipitation—increasingly rain instead of snow, except for persistently cold regions like the poles. And the growing energy level of the warmed atmosphere in general is leading toward more violent weather systems, with an increasing tendency toward violent downpours, not steady rainfall. This will happen in India, as the monsoon becomes more intense and at times violent. The majority of the water falling in the Himalaya region will be carried to Bangladesh, as 75% of the Himalaya’s southern face drains into the eastward Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers.

Mustard crop, Sirajganj.

Recent studies have predicted that by 2050 anywhere from 1.3 to 20 million Bangladeshis will be likely to emigrate from their southern delta homes. This is within the larger scene of more than 600 million people in coastal zones and island worldwide currently at risk from higher sea level. Climate migration, which we have seen in smaller, easier-to-deny pulses like the waves in recent years from northern Central America into the United States. Like water wars in the Mideast and Africa, large-scale migrations away from the devastation of climate change is likely to become real.

Bangladeshi delta village.

Tomorrow: introduction to China.

Be brave, and be well.