365 Days of Climate Awareness 0: Introduction

365 Days of Climate Awareness 

Part 0: Introduction

The release of the first part of the IPCC's sixth climate assessment [AR6] has, however late, restarted conversation on what to do to save ourselves (from ourselves). As a scientist (applied, not research), it's alarming to read the broad declarations and levels of certainty in the opening pages. There is no more hesitation, no more couching of conclusions in broad uncertainty. Humanity's role in altering Earth's climate for the warmer is clear and proven. The intro is the equivalent of a band of scientists--normally not attention-getters--parading into the room, banging ladles on pots, blowing whistles, and stomping their feet while wearing brightly colored costumes and throwing beans on everyone as they march noisily through.

And they're right to be strident. Enough talk of climate change as a problem "for our grandchildren". That dodge has been used for close to forty years. When global warming became a known topic in the 1980's, the talk was about future generations, about making the world better "for our grandchildren". Time has passed. The grandchildren of 1980s' parents are here, some nearing adulthood.  This is not a problem for their grandchildren in turn. The moment is now. The emergency is here. If this were a fantasy novel, the horrifying monster would be just outside, roaring and about to break down the front door.

This is no moment for ha-ha's or I-told-you-so's. Yes, we live in an intentionally fractured society where 1/3 of the population thinks a deadly pandemic is a hoax, and basic protective measures are derided as useless or actually dangerous. So awareness of the climate emergency--just take one look at the extreme temperatures and wildfires raging along the west coast of North America if you need convincing--falls along similar lines. The ones denying the reality of COVID are likely to be the ones denying the global climate emergency.

The scene in parts of Oregon. (Image: NPR)

The time for complacency is over.

What can I do? In the spirit of Gandhi, probably not much, but I'm still going to try. And one part of that will be a series of posts, hopefully one a day (please don't get mad if I miss a few days here and there), about a small aspect of climate change science. I plan to spread these out over a year. For one, it's likely to take me that long to go through this 3,950-page report. For another, it gives me the chance to break the issue down into small, easy-to-see parts which, when you put them all together, will give you a deeper, more integrated understanding of climate change science. Because it gets complicated.

My first informational post will be tomorrow, on the topic of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSPs], the modeling concept climate scientists have used since the early 90's, to conceive the different trajectories global society could take with respect to economic development, energy use, and carbon consumption.

In the meantime, here's a link to the report. It's not for the faint of heart: it's over 250 MB, a quarter of a gig, though you can download smaller portions, like the intro or specific chapters. It's still a little rough around the edges, being the early draft for governmental use, not the final, nicely-combed-out version. But the substance is there:

IPCC AR6 Physical Science Basis

Tomorrow: SSPs in modeling.

Be well!