There is no lack for excellent commentary on the conference as it proceeded and in its wake, at Daily Kos and elsewhere. There are dozens of superb diaries by some excellent writers including boatsie, Angmar, Pakalolo and others), and other sources of excellent commentary. I'm not going to try to repeat, in a few sentences, what so many others have already written so well and at greater length. It's worth investing the time to go exploring
I don't know how many shared my sense going into this conference that nothing important would change. My feeling after its conclusion is no different. No resolutions of any importance, concerning abandonment of coal and phase-out of hydrocarbons, were made. The wealthy nations of the G20 made no firm pledges to the poorer nations facing increasing levels of destruction from rising seas and temperatures.
If there's one sense of hope I have, it's somewhere between amorphous and concrete. And it's on the level of peer pressure between nations.Aside from the ten-page Pact, a number of statements of more limited scope were issued, on topics such as zero-emissions vehicles,aviation, shipping, agriculture and transitioning to renewable energy. To an extent these statements, which had far from unanimous approval among attendees, are just more lip service.
But the onus is shifting. Quickly enough? We'll find out soon. Articles 25-34 of the Pact, in section 4 (Mitigation), urge parties to increase their greenhouse reduction ambitions (Australia has already refused) and pledge increased reporting. My cause for hope? Sunlight, on a global scale. This conference held the attention of people from around the world, and most of those people are upset at the lack of progress. At the highest official levels, institutional weakness—the UN has no power to infringe on members' sovereignty, and democracies are not command economies—inhibits most progress. What can drive progress? The outrage of billions, and our collective market power. We face significant obstacles, including a wealthy and organized petroleum industry and growing authoritarian movements in every democratic nation.
There's another, deadlier, threat even behind global warming, one just as immediate and ignored still more glibly by even the most well-intentioned businesspeople and politicians: our headlong race toward the carrying capacity of a finite planet. Acknowledging the need to shape local, national and international policy toward the premise of an economy which plateaus and then shrinks, in a manageable way, is absolute anathema on almost any political spectrum. But I fear that, for all of our concern over global warming, we as a global society are like a middle-aged person diagnosed with a severe heart issue, needing to make significant lifestyle changes to have reasonable hope for another decade or two...all the while ignoring the lymphoma.
Tomorrow: the limits to growth.
Be brave, and be well.
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