365 Days of Climate Awareness 193 – Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Australia

Australia as a whole has warmed 1.44°C ± 0.24°C (2.6°F ± 0.43°F) between 1910 and 2019, a bit higher than the global land average of 1.1°C/2.0°F. Temperature rise does not occur in isolation, of course. The surrounding ocean water  has warmed by roughly 1°C/1.8°F, and climate patterns have changed across the continent.

Australian land surface anomalies vs. 1961-1990 average.

Using a slightly different method, comparing the decade of 2010-2020 to the 1850-1900 average, national warming is shown to be uneven:

• Australia: 1.6°C/2.9°F
• New South Wales: 1.4°C/2.5°F
• Northern Territory: 1.6°C/2.9°F
• Queensland: 1.6°C/2.9°F
• South Australia: 1.7°C/3.1°F
• Tasmania: 1.1°C/2.0°F
• Victoria: 1.2°C/2.2°F
• Western Australia: 1.3°C/2.3°F

20^th century warming has been over 1°C throughout the entire continent.

Monsoonal rain patterns have changed as well. The dry season of April to October (including austral winter) has become much drier in the southern half of the country, and mildly wetter in the north. Meanwhile, the wet season of October to April (which includes austral summer) has become significantly wetter across the western two-thirds of the continent, except for a narrow coastal zone in the southwest which, like the southeast, is drier. Like many (but not all) climatic trends associated with global warming, regional and seasonal variations throughout Australia have been exacerbated by increased heat in the ocean and atmosphere.

Dry season (April to October, including austral winter) precipitation trends in Australia, 2000-2020. 

Wet season (October to April, including austral summer) precipitation trends in Australia, 2000-2020. 

Australian greenhouse gas emissions had been steadily on the rise through the late 20^th century, primarily due to increasing CO2, but the economic downturn of 2009-2011 reduced that sharply. Since then, carbon dioxide (through 2016) has remained fairly steady, never returning to early 2000’s levels, while methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (NO₂) levels have fallen.

Australian greenhouse gas emissions, 1990-2016.

Tomorrow: Temperature and precipitation trends, New Zealand

Be brave, and be well.