365 Days of Climate Awareness 221 – Indonesia and Climate Change

Oil was discovered in Indonesia in the late 1800’s. The country joined OPEC in 1961 but suspended its membership in 2009 after years of production declines (briefly reactivating and then deactivating its membership again in 2016). From the 1960’s through early 2000’s Indonesia was a net oil exporter, but falling production and rising domestic consumption turned it into a net oil importer, which it has remained ever since. (Indonesia, along with countries like the United States, is thus an excellent example of geologist Jeffery Brown’s “export land model” of crude oil production versus consumption, the topic of a future post.)

Crude oil production and consumption in Indonesia, 1967-2020.

Natural gas production and consumption in Indonesia, 1970-2020.

Along with rising petroleum consumption have come rising emissions of carbon dioxide. Indonesia’s raw total and per capita emissions have risen sharply in recent decades, and the country now accounts for roughly 1.8% of the world’s total CO₂ emissions, while having 3.5% of its population (280 million out of 7.9 billion). Oil production continues to decline, while natural gas production and fossil fuel production continue to increase.

Indonesia is also one of the world’s leading exporters of coal (currently fourth globally, behind China, India and the US, and just ahead of Australia). While by 2020 renewables rose to 11.2% of the country’s total generation of electricity, as of 2019 coal accounted for 63%. Indonesia’s government plans on expanding coal-fired power generation to bring electricity to its more remote islands.

Average temperature in Indonesia, 1901-2020.

Deforestation is another major source of carbon dioxide for the atmosphere, via the lost forest sink. Between 1950 and 1999 it is estimated that Indonesia’s forests lost 62 million ha/153 million acres, or over 38% of its total area. Palm oil production and urbanization are the main culprits. Though forest loss has slowed in recent years it remains a concern.

Forest loss seems to have slowed but remains a problem.

As Indonesia industrialized and its population expanded in the late 20^th century, temperatures have risen but not markedly. This is consistent with the global pattern of less dramatic effects near the equator, where increases in thermal energy are proportionally lower than near the poles. Mean temperature was fairly even through most of the 20^th century, with the 0.5-0.75°C/0.9-1.4°F increase coming mostly since 1970. As with other island nations, Indonesia’s main concern is with sea level rise.

Tomorrow: moving Jakarta.

Be brave, and be well.