365 Days of Climate Awareness 236 – Climate change and Nigeria

As Nigeria’s economy has expanded with its oil production, so have the nation’s carbon dioxide emissions. One perverse result of Nigeria’s highly uneven economic development, with the majority of new wealth going to a very small group of people, is that national greenhouse gas emissions have stabilized in the last two decades. This is due partly to the fluctuations in global economy and oil prices, but also to the lack of growth in consumption among Nigerians.

Emissions by gas type.

Annual CO₂ emissions.

The prevalence of oil and gas production brings two specific greenhouse gas emission problems: methane (CH₄) escape from natural gas and oil wells, and flaring, or burning off of methane, from oil wells. Flaring is a common practice around the world (including the United States). Natural gas which exists in liquid solution underground, under tremendous pressure, becomes gaseous at the planet surface. But the amount is small enough in most oil wells that it cannot be separated off and transported in a pipeline of its own. What is not used for fuel, to power offshore oil platforms, for example, is flared as a safety measure. The amount flared can vary greatly with time, but Nigeria is estimated to have flared 1,250 trillion cubic feet of natural gas between 2016 and 2020, or roughly 68.5 trillion kg/151.9 trillion pounds CO₂ equivalent.

Cumulative CO₂ emissions.

While Nigeria’s climatic zones are predicted to be amazingly stable—there is little difference between the present and predicted Köppen-Geiger diagrams—temperatures are predicted to rise by as much as 6°C/10.8°F in the northeast by 2100. Consistently with elsewhere on the globe, the hydrological cycle is likely to be enhanced, with the rainy south becoming still wetter, and the arid north becoming drier.

Per capita CO₂ emissions.

Temperature anomaly, northeastern Nigeria, 1971 - 2010.

The increase in temperatures will surely affect local ecosystems, likely changing species distribution and human quality of life. Furthermore, the warmer climate is likely to increase the prevalence of malaria and other infectious diseases. However, in some areas of the northern savannah, increased temperature might actually increase agricultural yields.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016

Köppen-Geiger predicted climate zones, 2071 - 2100

Tomorrow: Lagos and other sinking cities.

Be brave, and be well.