365 Days of Climate Awareness 280 – Switzerland and Climate Change

Analogously to the intensification of warming in the Arctic, Switzerland is warming more than twice as quickly as the rest of the planet. Weather being the means of heat transfer in the atmosphere from warmer to colder zones, and climate being the long-term average of weather, it is no mystery that global warming has led to disproportionate warming in the cooler areas. This is a dangerous rule to apply flatly, because large-scale wind patterns, topography and ocean basins matter. The Arctic has warmed far more quickly than the Antarctic (though both have warmed). Flat comparisons are dangerous and lead to large misconceptions.

Climate Tracker: Switzerland's performance against the Paris Agreement.

Average annual temperature, Basel, Switzerland, 1758-2018.

Annual CO₂ Emissions, Switzerland

 Cumulative CO₂ Emissions, Switzerland

Per capita CO₂ Emissions, Switzerland

But as a general principle, an overall increase of heat energy in the atmosphere, plus a very likely increase in water vapor content and circulation (kinetic) energy, has led to, among other things, disproportionate warming at high mountain elevations. This has been expressed through declining snowfall and rapidly falling glacier mass. The Alps and Jura of Switzerland are no exception.And the record is clear: Switzerland’s mean temperature has increased by roughly 2.5°C/4.5°F, more than twice the world’s average, since 1900.

Global mountain glacier mass loss, 1970-2020.

Mass loss, three indicator Swiss Glaciers.

Over the past five decades glacier mass in Switzerland has declined with increasing speed. It’s predicted that half of Switzerland’s remaining glaciers will be gone by 2100. Summers are expected to become hotter and drier, while winters, also warmer, will become wetter. These combined trends will mean large changes in the Swiss ecosystem, with changing animal and plant species, the loss of much of the skiing industry as lower-mountain snowpacks melt away with the glaciers.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016

Predicted Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 2071-2100

Increasingly severe winter snow and rainfall, combined with drier summers and warmer overall temperatures, will increase water insecurity and will likely affect Switzerland’s hydropower generation. The glaciers have typically been a very reliable source of meltwater, feeding rivers even during dry warm months. But their decline and loss puts the following year’s river flow much more at the mercy of the previous winter, which could contribute to periodically lower rivers and the cascading problems that causes (as now with the Po).

Like Norway, Switzerland hardly faces an existential crisis due to global warming. But due to its accelerated warming, it is a very good indicator of the changes happening now and still to come.

Tomorrow: introduction to Croatia.

Be brave, and be well.