365 Days of Climate Awareness 347 – AR6 Vol. 3, Chap. 4: Near- and Mid-Term Mitigation Strategies

The first global stocktake of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the 2015 Paris Agreement was delayed, due to COVID, from 2021 to 2023, so it will not be until next year when we have any kind of detailed reporting on countries’ progress toward their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, those NDCs, as they currently stand, are not sufficient to have the planet on the optimal GHG reduction path by 2030 (near-term), toward net zero emissions by 2050 (mid-term). This deficiency is known as the “emissions gap”. Further, available information indicates that countries are falling short of their pledges (NDCs), known as the “implementation gap”. (2100 is “long-term”.)

Illustration from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, Vol. 3, Chap. 4. GHG emissions to 2100.

The current trajectory of emissions is toward 57 (52-60)  GtCO₂e-yr^-1 (gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year). According to IPCC models, if the goal is set as the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C/2.7°F global increase by 2050, this leaves an emissions gap of 26 GtCO₂e-yr^-1. If the goal is 2.0°C/3.6°F with limited overshoot, the emissions gap is 17 GtCO₂e-yr^-1. The implementation gaps are almost certainly worse. In short, we’re way behind schedule.

Illustration from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, Vol. 3, Chap. 4. Mitigation potentiaal of sub-national and non-state actors.

To make up the gaps, countries will need to pursue additional strategies. Though estimates do vary on the economic impacts of mitigation (some studies show GDP increasing despite mitigation policies consistent with 1.5°C increase. What is far easier to predict is that the impact of accelerated climate mitigation will fall unevenly on different sectors and therefore, depending on the character of their economies, on nations. Fossil fuel extraction and processing industries—coal, oil and gas—are on the chopping block, which is the primary reason for concerted industry-wide resistance to action on climate change. (A quick bit of economics: roughly 1.5 trillion barrels of oil remain in the ground. Assuming a standard recovery of 50%, 750 billion barrels could be produced. Assume a median price of $75 per barrel: those unrecovered barrels represent $56.25T in gross profit. That’s the logic behind denial.)

From Our World In Data. China and India coal consumption, 1965-2021.

Mitigation can occur at several levels: international (cooperation between sovereign governments), national, sub-national (but still governmental—i.e. national provinces and US states) and non-state (usually within one country, but sometimes spanning more than one). Activism and changes in private industry make up the bulk of non-state activity. Increased efficiency in products (though this is often the product of national regulations) is one avenue. Sector shifts such as the move, for economic reasons, away from coal (in most countries except China and India) toward natural gas and renewables, and the growing electric vehicle (EV) market are others.  

Tomorrow: net zero emissions defined.

Be brave, be steadfast, and be well.

IPCC 6th Assessment Report, Vol. 3, Chap. 4