365 Days of Climate Awareness 284 – Poland and Climate Change

The average annual temperature in Poland has increased by 2.0°C/3.6°F since 1950, about twice the world rate. This is consistent with much of Europe sharing the intensified warming of the Arctic. Despite persistent fears of the shutdown of the North Atlantic current (the entire Gulf Stream would not shut down: it would simply head east from North Carolina to Spain, instead of continuing north to Greenland), temperature records show tremendous disproportional warming in continental Europe along with the Arctic, and models do as well.  Knowing the mathematical basics of geophysical fluid dynamics, but not being a professional modeler myself, I can tell you that this aspect of the modeling—predicting further warming for Europe despite fears of the North Atlantic circulation weakening or ending—is a point of the models worth some attention.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016

Predicted Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 2071-2100

Temperature is expected to continue rising across the whole of the country, especially in winter and spring. Precipitation in the mountainous region of southern Poland is predicted to continue the trend toward increasingly severe events punctuated by drought, with a moderate increase in overall amount.

Annual CO₂ emissions, Poland

Cumulative CO₂ emissions, Poland

Poland accounts for 10.5% of the European Union’s carbon emissions, though it is nearly twice as carbon intensive (measured in tons CO₂ emitted per $ GDP), though this represents progress since 2005, with a fall of 44%, though its raw emissions have remained roughly consistent. In this respect Poland is performing better than most industrialized nations, whose emissions, aside from the economic effects of COVID-19, have increased. However, as is all too often the case, progress to reduce and eliminate emissions is yet to happen.

Per capita CO₂ emissions, Poland

Average annual temperatures for several Polish cities.

Tomorrow: introduction to the Middle East.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 283 – Introduction to Poland

Poland is a country in the northeastern sector of Europe, bordered by Germany on the west, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to the south, Ukraine to the southeast, and Belarus, Lithuania and Russia to the east. Its northern shore sits on the Baltic Sea. Poland is roughly 312,696 sq km/120,733 sq mi (a little smaller than New Mexico) and has over 38 million people (almost as many as California). Northern and central Poland is a mostly flat plain, with the Carpathians of central Europe in its south.

Political map of eastern Europe.

Traces of human habitation go back 500,000 years with remains of Homo erectus, and there are signs of many different peoples through the archeological record. Homo sapiens arrived about 10,000 years ago after the retreat of the last (Weichselian) glaciers, and the region has been continuously inhabited since then. Historically Poland has had to fight repeatedly for its independence against frequently more-powerful neighbors like the Prussians to the west, the Austrians to the south, and the Russians to the east. Modern Poland was constituted in 1919 following World War I, but fell under foreign control again with the joint invasions of Germany and Russia in World War II. The Soviet Union maintained hegemonic control of Poland in the decades following the war, but Poland gradually threw off Soviet influence and, with the rise of the Solidarity labor movement in the 1980’s, led the way toward the collapse of the Soviet empire in eastern Europe.

Physical map, Poland.

Poland’s economy is the sixth-largest in the EU, and continues to grow rapidly. Its economy is mainly agricultural, with coal mining and machinery manufacturing also important. Coal fuels most of Poland’s electricity generation. In the early 2010’s there was aggressive prospecting for shale gas deposits, with an estimated more than 500 million cubic meters of gas available, meaning Poland could potentially approach the UK in natural gas production. But the geology is too complicated for the deposits to be counted as commercial, so very little has been produced.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016

Central and northern Poland is largely flat, though it slopes gradually to the west, a region more crisscrossed by rivers than the higher altitudes of the east. The south is dominated by mountains, the Sudetes to the west and the taller Carpathians to the east (of which the Tatra mountains are part). Poland’s climate is temperate overall, with cold winters, ranging from oceanic (milder) in the north to conetinental (greater seasonal extremes) in the southeast.

Tatra Mountains, southern Poland.

Tomorrow: Poland and climate change.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 282 – Croatia, the Balkans and Climate Change

Croatia, like the western Balkans in general, has paid little attention to the global warming crisis, increasing its collective production and use of lignite, the cheapest, dirtiest, and least efficient form of coal. Political, economic and social instability never fail to push environmental issues aside, and the western Balkan states are an unfortunate case in point. The western Balkans are not yet members of the European Union, so they are not yet bound by EU environmental standards.3.1

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016.

Predicted Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 2071-2100.

Since the late 60’s, the average temperature of this region has increased by 1.2°C/2.2°F, and it is predicted to increase by as much as 4.0°C/7.2°F by 2100. Historically, and in models for the future, Croatia and the region to the south are far exceeding global warming rates. And in the pattern which is by now familiar, summer months have become drier, and will become drier still; winter months will become wetter, but with fewer, more extreme events. The sub-tropical climate will push north, altering ecosystems and species survivability.

Annual CO₂ emissions, Croatia.

Cumulative CO₂ emissions, Croatia.

Per capita CO₂ emissions, Croatia.

The summer heat has brought more and increasingly severe heat waves, and these will increase. Among other effects on biodiversity, the forests are likely to lose trees and the risk of fire will increase. As has been seen in other industrialized, warming parts of the world, energy use during the hot months has increased and will continue to, as people turn to air conditioning. Neither Croatia nor the other Balkan states have coal phase-out plans, as prescribed in the Paris Agreement. Though its CO₂ emissions dropped in 2020, largely due the COVID-19 pandemic, the country and the region continue to perform poorly with regard to decarbonizing.

b

West Balkan coal (lignite) production, 1990-2019.

Tomorrow: introduction to Poland.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 281 – Introduction to Croatia and the Balkans

Croatia is a country on the northeastern coast of the Adriatic Sea, between central and southeastern Europe. It covers 56,594 sq km/21,851 sq mi (a little smaller than West Virginia), has a population of about 3.9 million (about the same as Oklahoma), and is bordered by Slovenia to the north, Hungary and Serbia to the east, and by Bosnia, Herzegovina and Montenegro to the south. These countries form much of the Balkans region, named for the Balkans mountains which run northwest-southeast through southeastern Europe into Greece.

Political map of eastern Europe.

This region has one of the most turbulent and bloody histories on earth, like the Levant, full of ethnic and religious warfare and conquests from without, which has led to a small region full of very live conflict and hatred to this day. (If you’re willing to spend a few weeks on it, I can’t encourage you enough to read Rebecca West’s beautiful Black Lamb and Grey Falcon, a tourist’s profile of this area when it was forcibly unified as Yugoslavia). 

Physical map of the Balkans peninsula.

Traces of inhabitation date back to the Paleolithic Neanderthal age, and there are signs of almost continuous inhabitation throughout the region leading up to historical times. The Romans conquered the region (when it was known as Dalmatia) and established one of the larger cities of their realm at Salona. It was near there that the emperor Diocletian (a subject West treats gorgeously in her book) established (or tried to) his retirement palace, more of an armed camp, at Split.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016.

Croatia is a reasonably wealthy country, with per capita GDP estimated at 65% of the EU average. Its economy is dominated by tourism, centered on the Adriatic coast. It maintains large marine preserves and many highly-rated (“Blue Flag”) beaches free of industrial encroachment or construction. Its main industries include shipbuilding, IT manufacturing, pharamceuticals and timber.

Artist's reconstruction of the original apparance (it still exists!) of Diocletian's retirement palace in Split.

The Balkan Mountains, also known as the Dinaric Alps, begin in Croatia along the coast, and broaden to the south, separating southeast Europe from the Adriatic Sea. Northeast of these in Croatia is the Pannonian Basin, a major drainage zone which includes the Danube. Much of Croatia is marine limestone, which has become karst (deep cave) topography. Several of the world’s deepest-known caves occur there. Caves are known for their microclimates and isolated ecosystems. Croatia has a temperate maritime climate, grading to Mediterranean more inland, and becoming cooler and alpine in the mountains. Precipitation varies widely by region, from 60 cm/24 in to 350 cm/140 inches.

Roman amphitheater in Pula (sixth largest remaining from the Empire).

Tomorrow: the Balkans and climate change.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 280 – Switzerland and Climate Change

Analogously to the intensification of warming in the Arctic, Switzerland is warming more than twice as quickly as the rest of the planet. Weather being the means of heat transfer in the atmosphere from warmer to colder zones, and climate being the long-term average of weather, it is no mystery that global warming has led to disproportionate warming in the cooler areas. This is a dangerous rule to apply flatly, because large-scale wind patterns, topography and ocean basins matter. The Arctic has warmed far more quickly than the Antarctic (though both have warmed). Flat comparisons are dangerous and lead to large misconceptions.

Climate Tracker: Switzerland's performance against the Paris Agreement.

Average annual temperature, Basel, Switzerland, 1758-2018.

Annual CO₂ Emissions, Switzerland

 Cumulative CO₂ Emissions, Switzerland

Per capita CO₂ Emissions, Switzerland

But as a general principle, an overall increase of heat energy in the atmosphere, plus a very likely increase in water vapor content and circulation (kinetic) energy, has led to, among other things, disproportionate warming at high mountain elevations. This has been expressed through declining snowfall and rapidly falling glacier mass. The Alps and Jura of Switzerland are no exception.And the record is clear: Switzerland’s mean temperature has increased by roughly 2.5°C/4.5°F, more than twice the world’s average, since 1900.

Global mountain glacier mass loss, 1970-2020.

Mass loss, three indicator Swiss Glaciers.

Over the past five decades glacier mass in Switzerland has declined with increasing speed. It’s predicted that half of Switzerland’s remaining glaciers will be gone by 2100. Summers are expected to become hotter and drier, while winters, also warmer, will become wetter. These combined trends will mean large changes in the Swiss ecosystem, with changing animal and plant species, the loss of much of the skiing industry as lower-mountain snowpacks melt away with the glaciers.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016

Predicted Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 2071-2100

Increasingly severe winter snow and rainfall, combined with drier summers and warmer overall temperatures, will increase water insecurity and will likely affect Switzerland’s hydropower generation. The glaciers have typically been a very reliable source of meltwater, feeding rivers even during dry warm months. But their decline and loss puts the following year’s river flow much more at the mercy of the previous winter, which could contribute to periodically lower rivers and the cascading problems that causes (as now with the Po).

Like Norway, Switzerland hardly faces an existential crisis due to global warming. But due to its accelerated warming, it is a very good indicator of the changes happening now and still to come.

Tomorrow: introduction to Croatia.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 279 – Introduction to Switzerland

Switzerland is a mountainous, landlocked country in the center of Europe. It spans 41,285 sq km/15,940 sq mi, its territory divided between the Swiss Plateau, the Alps and the Jura. Its population is slightly over 8.6 million, and four languages predominate: French, German, Romanish, and Italian. Over the past century-plus, Switzerland has been famous for its wartime neutrality, tolerated by passing armies because of the lack of strategic value of the central, high mountain territory. That is possibly changing now, as Switzerland considers entering the defensive North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Western Europe.

Physical map of Switzerland.

There are signs of human habitation in Switzerland dating back 150,000 years. Traces of agrarian culture dating to 5300 BCE. The region passed into the control of the Romans in the third century CE, and after the empire’s fall, later came under the influence of the Franks. By the 1300’s the Swiss Confederacy, an association of local rulers throughout the mountain territory, emerged and survived, largely preserving its independence until invasion by Napoleon. In 1815 Switzerland achieved full independence and formed the federal state which survives today.

Köppen-Geiger climate zones, 1980-2016

In many ways Switzerland is a model state, ranking first worldwide in per-capita wealth (by GDP and other measures), and one of the least governmentally corrupt (as opposed to its banking industry, which is considered one of the most corrupt). Its economy is based on banking, tech services, and manufacturing of medical instruments, electronics, precision instruments (including watches), chemicals and pharmaceuticals. Switzerland generates 56% of its electricity via hydropower and 39% from nuclear plants, for a total of 95% carbon-free power generation.

Bern, capital city.

Switzerland is generally temperate outside of the high mountain zone, and is quite warm on its southern tip near the Mediterranean. Switzerland’s climate is somewhat erratic and unique, with warm föhn winds arriving alternately from the north or the south, acting somewhat like an offshore monsoon, bringing warm, moist air to the mountain elevations, but with no clear pattern or strength. Switzerland is known for its dramatic mountain peaks, snow (and associated skiing), avalanches and glaciers. Avalanches remain a constant threat when a snowpack weakens and flows down the mountain. But Switzerland’s alpine glaciers, having covered 961 sq km/371 sq mi in 2016, are shrinking rapidly.

Anti-avalanche church at Frauenkirch, Davos

Tomorrow: Switzerland and climate change.

Be brave, and be well.

365 Days of Climate Awareness 278 – The Arctic Council

The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental organization between the eight countries with territory above the Arctic Circle (Russia, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Iceland, Denmark, Canada and the USA) and indigenous peoples’ groups, devoted to “promoting cooperation in the Arctic”. It appeared in its first form in 1991 with the adoption of the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy. A series of monitoring and environmental protection agreements followed quickly, and in 1996, the Ottawa Declaration formally established the Arctic Council.

The offical logo (I think it's pretty cool).

The Council sponsors a number of research programs on various aspects of the Arctic environment, covering topics like Arctic peoples, biodiversity, climate, the ocean, pollutants and emergencies. Since its creation it has allowed a number of observer nations, who may attend meetings but cannot vote. Observers include most of continental Europe, China and India. China particularly in recent years has become increasingly interested in the Arctic and is seeking a path to become a voting member.

Map of member and observer states.

Chairmanship over the Council rotates among members with a two-year term. Russia is currently serving its 2021-2023 term, but due to its invasion of Ukraine, the other seven members have suspended Council operations. They will resume in 2023 when the chairmanship passes to Norway. But Russia occupies roughly 1/3 of the Arctic, and its diplomatic isolation puts the future of the Council in some doubt. It is this uncertainty with China seeks to exploit and gain a full seat while having no Arctic territory. China’s interest in the far north, with its oil deposits and potential shipping routes, shows very clearly the Arctic’s growing geopolitical importance.

Western portion of the Arctic, September 2010.

It also shows at best contradictions in, and at worst the total hollowness of, nations’ stated commitments to awareness and mitigation of global warming. Exploitation of the Arctic Ocean’s oil and gas reserves will be a full surrender to the capitalistic destruction of our climate as we know it. Trade routes through an open Arctic ocean would likely be the same. The Arctic Council has no real power over the actions of its members: it is a forum for cultural, not diplomatic, exchange. It is an arena for soft power and, hopefully, enough meaningful research and cultural exchange to empower real change in the political and economic world.

A titanium flag placed on the floor of the Arctic Ocean at the North Pole in 2007. Galling, isn't it?

Tomorrow: introduction to Switzerland.

Be brave, and be well.