Climatically, the Middle East is already the hottest region on earth and it will only become hotter in years to come. Political and social divisions have led to a series of regional wars. This combined with the world’s overwhelming desire for oil continue to prevent any semblance of a meaningful climate response there. Models predict warming of 4.0°C/7.2°F by 2100, rendering nearly all of the Arabian Peninsula, and much territory outside of it, uninhabitable.
Political map of the Middle East.
Water wars have already occurred in the Middle East, beginning in the Arab-Israeli War of 1948-9, which resulted in the strategic water source of the Golan Heights being declared demilitarized. Israel proceeded with a water diversion project, to which Syria objected but the US and UN lent their support to Israel, supporting water diversion for both Israel and Jordan. Conflict between Israel and the surrounding Arab nations simmered for nearly two decades, and came to a head again in 1964 when Israel finished its water diversion project in the northern Sea of Galilee. The Arabas attempted to divert fresh water upstream from the Israeli construction, but their efforts failed and led to the Six-Day War in 1967, resulting in an Israeli victory.
The Golan Heights and surrounding area.
Wars like these are the future of an increasingly hot and dry Middle East. But as seen elsewhere around the world, problems cascade and become large-scale disasters. In the case of the Middle East, even longer and hotter dry summer seasons, creating more power demand for air conditioning and reducing crops, will combine with less overall access to water and lead to heightened social instability. Restive populations agitating against their own governments, even while conflict among nations for shrinking water resources increases, could produce a very grim reality in the Middle East before century’s end.
Be brave, and be well.
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