365 Days of Climate Awareness 287 – Climate Change and the Arab Spring

The Arab Spring was a series of protests, riots and armed uprisings throughout the Arab world which began in Tunisia in December 2010, and spread east across North Africa and into the Arabian Peninsula, lasting until December 2012. The term “Arab Spring” was adopted from the European “Springtime of Nations” revolts of 1848, and the 1968 “Prague Spring” uprising when Czech Jan Palach set himself on fire.

In similar manner, the Arab Spring began on December 17, 2010, when Tunisian street vendor

Mohamed Bouazizi self-immolates in protest of economic injustice, December 17, 2010.

Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in protest after his equipment was confiscated by a local official with whom he’d been in conflict for quite some time. His act of self-destruction ignited a massive wave of anti-government activity throughout the entire Arab world, culminating in 2011-12 in armed uprisings in Bahrain, Libya, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Yemen and elsewhere. In early 2011 weeks of massive demonstrations in Egypt succeeded in forcing the resignation of acting president Hosni Mubarak, leading to widespread celebration. Several countries declared states of emergency. It spurred civil wars in Libya, Syria and Yemen. Saudi Arabia violently crushed protest in its own country and lent armed support to Bahrain. The re-assertion of governmental control since then has been referred to as the “Arab winter”.

Effects of the Arab Spring.

Several different factors enabled the protests and uprisings to sweep through that part of the world so quickly. One was social media, with sites like Facebook, Twitter and others allowing people to communicate, spreading ideas and making plans (not the last time those websites would prove dangerous to governments). Another was one of the main drivers: the 2010-11 global spike in food prices.

A 100-year drought in 2010 in China devastated its wheat crop, and combined with shortages from other drought-stricken areas of the planet. Through 2010 and 11, the Middle East, home to the world’s top nine per-capita wheat importers, especially suffered.  After nearly two years of declining regional food production, the global shortage created a crisis. In Arab countries, where governments heavily subsidize many necessities and exert generally greater economic control than in most western democracies, governments were the target of the people’s rage.

Celebration in Egypt after the resignation of Hosni Mubarak, February 11, 2011.

Analogously to hurricanes and extreme events, definitive proof that the warming planet caused the droughts which precipitated the Arab Spring protests and uprisings cannot be given. But the events are easily correlated. In huge, complex physical systems like earth’s climate, and in huge, elaborate, intricate human-made systems like the economies and governments of the world, definitive, quantitative answers are beyond our reach.

Sanaa, Yemen 2015. The effects of civil war, aided by Saudi Arabia.

Is anthropogenic global warming happening? Unequivocally yes. Can global warming be definitively linked to the wave of protest and violence which engulfed Arab countries in 2010-12? No. But the circumstances make the correlation obvious. And since the world is not a laboratory, a correlation as powerful as this should be enough to inspire action.

Tomorrow: introduction to Asia.

Be brave, and be well.