Changing the demand side—reducing consumption—should theoretically be the easiest method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, this is called into some question given the IPCC estimate that 36-45% of all emissions are due to the lifestyles of the planet’s wealthiest 10% (slightly under $100,000 net worth, according to one estimate. About 102 million Americans—a little less than a third of the country’s population—are among this group.)
All images from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, Vol. 3, Chap. 5. Per-capita energy use around the world, with countries grouped by socioeconomic development.
The IPCC’s models predict that 40-70% of emissions cuts by 2050 could be made on the demand side. This seems easier because it does not require the buildout of entire new industries like revamping energy production and industry do. However, the social inertia in reducing consumption so sharply could prove to be no less a challenge than systemic technological improvement.
Components of reducing global demand by 2050.
Digitizing services alone has not reduced energy consumption in all cases, because improved speed in service is offset by increased energy use by the computer systems. Improved efficiency in the data systems themselves will do more than merely digitalizing to genuinely reduce the carbon footprint of many service industries.
Socioeconomic aspects of current and modeled (equitable) 2050 demand.
Though an equitable approach to climate change requires the wealthiest to make proportionately larger cuts in their consumption, the intended outcome—reduction in demand—cannot fail to negatively affect sectors of wealthier nations’ economies. Since reduced demand is one symptom of recession, that danger is very real in this course of mitigation. Social movements designed around behavioral change and shared sacrifice for the sake of common goals are an important component in this strategy.
\\
Toward a more equitable society.
Be brave, be steadfast, and be well.
No comments:
Post a Comment