365 Days of Climate Awareness 350 – AR6 Vol. 3, Chap. 6: Energy

In order to meet the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C/2.7°F temperature rise over 1750 levels, global output of CO₂ from the energy industry will need to decline 35-51% relative to the present, and all greenhouse gases (GHGs) 38-52%, by 2030. By 2050 the drops will need to be 87-97% for CO2,  60-79% for all GHGs. This transition must be made on both the supply side (generation) and the demand side (consumption). Among fossil fuels, coal use must drop from present levels by 67-82% by 2030.

All images from the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, Vol. 3, Chap. 6. Retirement of coal plants needed to meet Paris Agreement goals.

Capacity increase in wind and solar power in recent years.

Onshore and offshore wind cost, capacity and LCOE.

The IPCC lists seven components essential at the national level to energy decarbonization:

1.  Gross-zero or net-negative-CO₂ electricity production systems;
2. Widespread electrification of end uses, including light transport, heating and cooking;
3. Substantially reduced fossil fuel use relative to today;
4. Use of alternate engine fuels instead of gasoline and diesel, like ammonia, hydrogen and bioenergy;
5. Greater general efficiency in all phases;
6. Greater system integration for larger-scale efficiencies;
7. Carbon capture and storage.

GHG emissions by sector in recent years. 

Global primary energy (energy as found in nature, not yet converted for human use) and consumption. 

GHG emissions changes in recent years. 

Two hopeful signs are the worldwide drop in price for renewable energy (Levelized Cost of Energy—LCOE, the expected price per unit energy, in today’s dollars, over a project’s lifetime), and the dramatic increase in global renewables capacity. Between 2015 and 2020, the LCOE for photovoltaic (PV) power generation has dropped 56%, wind power 45%, and batter storage 64%. Meanwhile from 2015 to 2019, PV capacity increased by 170% (to 680 TWh), and wind by 70% (to 1,420 TWh). In that span, hydropower capacity grew by 10% to 4,290 TWh, and nuclear capacity by 9% to 2,790 TWh. That year the planet consumed 22,848 TWh of electricity. Renewables produced 28% of that, and low-carbon (renewables plus nuclear) accounted for 37% (up from 34% in 2015).

Drivers of GHG emissions around the world. 

Projected energy sector GHG emissions for 1 . 5°C scenarios.

Projected emissions reductions by region and sector to meet Paris Agreement goals.

A popular term in consulting and industry circles today is “disruption”, and that will be one inescapable result of a rapid shift away from fossil fuels. The fossil fuel industry resists, existentially, all movement toward stranding oil, gas and coal assets in the ground (reminding you again of the $56.25T, at $75/barrel, to be made from remaining reserves). Shifting from carbon-intensive to low-carbon or carbon-free alternatives will change investment patterns, in some cases catastrophically, but also opening up a range of new alternatives for countries around the world, regions with significant renewable potential, and the people who live there. And the goal is to provide energy both equitably and sustainably for the entire world population. In this sphere, nationalistic governments pose as very live a danger as the fossil fuel industry to progress on climate change.

Projected decrease in emissions by sector to meet Paris Agreement goals. 

Projected changes by energy source to meet Paris Agreement goals. 

Schematic of a carbon-neutral economic system. 

Tomorrow: agriculture, forestry, and other land uses.

Be brave, be steadfast, and be well.

IPCC 6th Assessment Report, Vol. 3, Chap. 6